The Marcos administration’s focus on optics and performative governance instead of real and substantive rice sector reforms is a disservice to farmers and consumers. The Php20 rice gimmick is to beguile consumers, while claims of protecting the rice sector are aimed at rice farmers. Neither are real solutions.
The agriculture department’s recent announcement regarding rice importation is confusing. It stated that there will be “an increase in tariffs,” implying that imports will continue but with higher tariffs. At the same time, it’s calling for “a temporary halt to importation,” meaning that there will be no imports, at least for a while. It is confusing whether or not there is a plan to calibrate or sequence these interventions.
However, taking announcements as they stand, the rice import suspension will certainly help raise palay farmgate prices. These have fallen drastically to Php17 per kilo in June 2025 from Php25 in the same period last year, with some areas seeing prices as low as Php13-15 per kilo. Such low farmgate prices aren’t enough to cover farmers’ rising costs of production. The huge disincentive to rice farming drives farmers, especially youth, to seek other means of livelihood, which also compromises the country’s food security.
Local rice producers do need protection given how heavily they’ve been undermined by decades of cheap imports and a lack of state support. Protection, however, must be astride greater support which isn’t forthcoming.
The drop in imports from any higher tariffs and import restrictions might also make rice more expensive and contribute to higher inflation. This is because there isn’t a great leap in domestic supply to make up for reduced rice imports. As it is, the government’s projected rice production for 2025 of 12.9 MMT already falls far short of the 15.5 MMT in projected rice demand, not yet even counting the 3.9 MMT targeted ending stock of rice for the year.
The administration seems emboldened by the 9.08 million metric tons (MMT) of palay production in the first half of 2025 being 6.4% higher than the 8.53 MMT in the same period last year. However, this first half output is just a trifling 0.6% larger than in the same period in 2023 when the population and correspondingly rice demand were smaller. Regular-milled rice averaged Php42.80 that same year.
This mirrors general stagnation in the agricultural sector. Food is expensive and more Filipinos are poor and hungry. This is because the Marcos Jr administration is responsible for the worst performing agriculture sector in the country’s history. Under Marcos Jr, agriculture’s dismal 0.2% growth is far below Duterte’s 1.2%, Aquino’s 2.1%, and the 3.6% historical average since 1947.
The Philippines’ dependence on imported rice has reached record highs under this government and the 4.8 MMT imported in 2024 was equivalent to almost 30% of total rice consumed. There have already been around 2.3 MMT in rice imports as of early July this year. With such extreme dependence, tariff hikes or import restrictions on rice from abroad will be felt in local markets across the country. This will hit poor and low-income households the most because they spend a significant portion of their income on food and especially on rice. It’s however not clear how much the 60-day suspension on rice importation will actually affect domestic supply.
The real issue though is not just the tariffs or import restrictions now but rather what the administration is doing to build a resilient and self-sufficient rice sector. It should be remembered that the president supposedly increased funding for the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) by Php20 billion annually after signing Republic Act 12078 on December 9, 2024. But when he approved the 2025 General Appropriations Act (GAA) three weeks later, he vetoed what was even just an additional Php5 billion for RCEF – to make room for pork barrel projects. The GAA’s budget for irrigation was also cut.
Not increasing support for rice producers is inconsistent with repeated statements that rice production will be increased. Subsidizing the price of rice for consumers is mere populist posturing without matching support for rice producers.
The worsening reliance on imports to contain increases in domestic rice prices is a problem that will persist if the government keeps scrimping on support for rice producers. The government should be investing in irrigation, extension, inputs, credit access, and post-harvest facilities for small farmers. Without these, the Philippines will remain vulnerable to weather-driven supply disruptions and global rice market movements, and the rural sector will continue to languish.
Any tariff adjustment or import suspension should be part of a broader and strategic food security policy and not just a knee-jerk reaction to domestic price movements or populist impulses. Increasing tariffs or restricting imports may seem to offer some relief to local producers, but this is hollow without a sustained serious commitment to rebuilding the country’s agricultural base. It’s this deeper policy failure that is behind so much of current food price and inflationary burdens on the poor and low-income households who make up the overwhelming majority of the population.
