{"id":8432,"date":"2019-07-22T07:54:57","date_gmt":"2019-07-21T23:54:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/?p=8432"},"modified":"2019-07-22T08:47:19","modified_gmt":"2019-07-22T00:47:19","slug":"dutertes-midterm-change-for-the-worse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/dutertes-midterm-change-for-the-worse\/","title":{"rendered":"Duterte’s Midterm: Change for the Worse"},"content":{"rendered":"

(IBON 2019 Midyear Birdtalk Briefing Paper economic situation highlights<\/em>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country\u2019s\nslowing economy, and worsening jobs crisis and poverty disputes the\nDuterte administration\u2019s hype of economic gains. IBON said that\nthis is bound to worsen if the Duterte administration continues\nunopposed on its current neoliberal trajectory wherein the interests\nof big foreign and local business prevail to the detriment of\nmillions of Filipinos, especially the poor. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic\ngrowth slowing since the start of the administration.<\/strong><\/em>Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data show that gross\ndomestic product (GDP) growth has been slowing in the 11 quarters\nsince the start of the Duterte administration from 7.1% in the third\nquarter of 2016 to 5.6% in the first quarter of 2019. There was a\nmomentary increase to 7.2% in the third quarter of 2017 but growth\nfell rapidly after this. Notably, growth was slowing even before the\nbudget impasse and election ban on infrastructure spending. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High real\nunemployment.<\/strong><\/em> Computing according to the original definition\nof unemployment for comparability would show that the real\nunemployment rate in 2018 is 10.1% and the real number of unemployed\nis 4.6 million. These are much worse than the already high 9.0%\nunemployment rate and 4 million unemployed in 2016, again computed\naccording to the original definition. In contrast, officially\nreleased figures for 2018 were a grossly underreported 5.3% and 2.3\nmillion, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The record real\nunemployment last year is a direct result of how only an annual\naverage of 81,000 new jobs have been created since the start of the\nDuterte administration, from 41.0 million employed in 2016 increasing\nby 162,000 to 41.2 million in 2018. To put this into context and even\ngranting that the administration is just at its midpoint, this is so\nfar the worst employment generation post-Marcos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lowest and\nleast frequent wage hikes under Duterte.<\/strong><\/em> The Duterte\nadministration is so far making the worst record on wage hikes of all\npost-Marcos administrations. In the NCR, for instance, it has only\ngiven an average of one wage hike every 18 months. The frequency of\nwage hikes previously ranged from one every 16 months under Arroyo to\none every 10 months under Ramos. Over the two wage hikes under\nDuterte, the nominal value of the wage increased by only 9.4% –\ncompared to a range of 11.5% by Benigno Aquino III to 45.9% by\nCorazon Aquino over their respective first two wage hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poverty\nunderreported.<\/strong><\/em> IBON estimates on Family Income and\nExpenditure Survey (FIES) data in 2015 found that the poorest 50% or\n11.4 million families had monthly incomes of just Php15,000 or less,\nand the poorest 60% or 13.6 million families just some Php18,000 or\nless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inequality\nworsening.<\/strong><\/em> The net worth of the country\u2019s richest Filipinos\nand profits of the largest corporations continue to grow, in some\ncases even outpacing economic growth. The net worth of the 10 richest\nFilipinos grew from Php2.5 billion in 2016 to Php2.7 billion in 2018.\nThe net worth of the 40 richest Filipinos grew from Php3.7 billion to\nPhp3.8 billion in the same period. The net worth of the 40 richest as\npercentage of GDP was 21.9% in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A<\/strong><\/em>griculture\n<\/strong><\/em>in crisis<\/strong><\/em>, manufacturing stalling.<\/strong><\/em>\nAgriculture has been left to perform chronically poorly. The sector\ngrew by just 0.8% last year and in the first quarter of 2019. This is\njust around half the growth pace of 1.5% in the 2010s and not even a\nthird of the 2.9% clip in the 2000s. Employment in agriculture has\nfallen by 1.1 million between 2016 and 2018, with an initial further\n376,000 losses reported in April 2019 from the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manufacturing\nalready appears to be stalling with growth of just 4.9% in 2018 \u2013\nthe slowest since 2012 \u2013 and slowing further to 4.6% in the first\nquarter of 2019. The share of manufacturing in total employment of\njust 8.8% in 2018 is actually even much lower than its 10.1% share in\n1990 and 11% in 1990. These are despite the sector growing by 22.1%\nbetween 2016 and 2018, according to national accounts data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poorest land\ndistribution.<\/strong><\/em>\nLands covered by the Comprehensive Agrarian\nReform Program (CARP) should have been distributed by 1998. This\ndeadline was reset twice, yet until now 100% distribution has not\nbeen met. To add to this injustice, distribution is slow and is even\ngoing at a slower pace than before under the Duterte administration.\nDepartment of Agrarian Reform (DAR) land distribution accomplishment\nin the period 2016-June 2019 is just at an average of 2,920 hectares\nmonthly. This is much less than under Benigno Aquino III (8,254\nhectares, July 2010-2015), Arroyo (9,047 hectares, January 2001-June\n2010), Estrada (11,113 hectares, July 1998-2000), Ramos (26,389\nhectares, July 1992-June 1998), and Corazon Aquino (14,142 hectares,\nJuly 1987-June 1992).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B<\/strong><\/em>uild\n<\/strong><\/em>B<\/strong><\/em>uild <\/strong><\/em>B<\/strong><\/em>uild<\/strong><\/em>,\nfor whom?<\/strong><\/em>Over the 2016-2017 period, the biggest\nconcentration of gross value in public construction was in Pres.\nDuterte\u2019s home region of Davao (Region XI) accounting for 14.1% of\nthe total. The increase in Davao is notable in almost doubling from\n7.9% over the period 2010-2015 to 14.1% in 2016-2017.\nClose Duterte allies have reportedly been among\nthe beneficiaries of the surge in Davao construction projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mounting debt.<\/strong><\/em>\nThe government is already borrowing heavily. Total outstanding debt\nof the national government stood at Php7.9 trillion as of May 2019\nimplying a total increase of Php2 trillion since the start of the\nDuterte administration. In nominal terms, this is equivalent to an\naverage monthly increase in debt of Php56.2 billion, which is over\ntwo-and-a-half times that of the Arroyo administration (Php21.2\nbillion) and nearly three times that of the previous Aquino\nadministration (Php19 billion).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Truth about\nTRAIN.<\/strong><\/em> The Duterte administration has tried to divert from\nthe regressive nature of its tax reforms by repeatedly claiming that\nit benefits \u201c99% of taxpayers\u201d and giving the impression that 99%\nof Filipinos gain from TRAIN Package One. The reality however is that\nonly 5.5 million personal income taxpayers coming largely from the\nhighest income groups will gain from TRAIN\u2019s personal income tax\ncuts. An additional two million taxpayers are minimum wage earners\nand so previously already exempt. On the other hand, the poorest 17.2\nmillion or eight out of 10 (76%) Filipino families will pay TRAIN\u2019s\nhigher taxes on consumption goods including petroleum products and\nsugar-sweetened beverages. ###<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(IBON 2019 Midyear Birdtalk Briefing Paper economic situation highlights) The country\u2019s slowing economy, and worsening jobs crisis and poverty disputes the Duterte administration\u2019s hype of economic gains. IBON said that this is bound to worsen if the Duterte administration continues unopposed on its current neoliberal trajectory wherein the interests of big foreign and local business […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-withbanner.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","_expiration-date-status":"saved","_expiration-date":0,"_expiration-date-type":"","_expiration-date-categories":[],"_expiration-date-options":[]},"categories":[2048,14],"tags":[2054,347,116],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8432"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8432"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8435,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8432\/revisions\/8435"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8434"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ibon.org\/tl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}