The\nDuterte administration is still not clear on what its COVID-19\nresponse is and how much this will cost. On top of that, it also\ndoesn\u2019t know how to fund this because it refuses to let go of its\nsacred cows \u2013 infrastructure, debt service, and the accumulated\nwealth and profits of the country\u2019s economic elite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Millions\nof poor Filipino families are suffering the worst mass unemployment\nin the country\u2019s history because of the military lockdown since\nMarch. This has even been extended for another two weeks. Yet,\ntragically, the nation still does not know how far it really is in\ndealing with its worst public health crisis ever. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\nis over two months since the first confirmed case of COVID-19, nearly\nfour weeks into the unprecedented lockdown, and over two weeks into\npandemic emergency powers. The Duterte administration\u2019s confusion\nand disarray in responding is unforgiveable and a disservice to the\nheroic efforts of so many Filipinos including in the lower levels of\ngovernment and private sector volunteers. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even worse, based on what little we know, the Duterte administration\u2019s response is not just unclear but also slow and stingy. This means that millions of Filipinos are facing more difficulties today than ever, and also that there will be a deeper socioeconomic crisis going on long after the lockdown is lifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Billions\nto respond<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nclearest sign that things are so unclear for the administration is\nits inability to say exactly what its COVID-19 response is and what\nbudget is needed. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n When\nthe military lockdown was declared, the government announced a\nPhp27.1\nbillion<\/a>\npackage versus the pandemic. This was a haphazard<\/a>\ncobbling together for\ncrude public relations purposes\nof mainly recycled\npre-pandemic government programs, including a completely irrelevant\nPhp14\nbillion<\/a> for\ntourism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pressed\nfor something more substantial, it superseded that first package and\nthrew a Php275\nbillion<\/a>\nfigure into the air during the railroading of emergency powers\nthrough Congress. This supposedly consisted of Php200 billion for\nemergency subsidies and Php75 billion for health care.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Two\nweeks and two reports to Congress on the use of emergency powers\nlater, that Php275 billion is still the representative figure and the\nclosest thing to a summary of the government\u2019s COVID-19 response. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n In\nthe meantime, the government reports what are meant to be impressive\nefforts at raising funds<\/a>\nfor its COVID-19 response \u2013 Php300 billion from the sale of\ngovernment securities, Php189.8 billion in unreleased appropriations\nand realignments, Php121.6 billion in advanced remittances of\ndividends to the national government from government-owned and\n-controlled corporations (GOCCs), Php22 billion in unutilized cash\nbalances and funds, and Php10.3 billion in additional cash\nallocations and allotments. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mechanically\nadding these up gives the impression of Php644.1 billion already\navailable from various sources. However, at least Php143.6 billion or\n22% of this \u2013 the early dividends and unutilized cash \u2013 is\nactually not a literally new budget for the response and just about\nensuring there\u2019s cash at hand to immediately spend. The economic\nmanagers are also looking at US$2\nbillion<\/a>\nfrom multilateral lenders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Seeing\nso many numbers is bewildering \u2013 so where exactly are we?<\/p>\n\n\n\n What\nresponse?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nlogical place to start is from identifying what needs to be done.\nIt\u2019s a straightforward matter to just list what the government\nitself has already identified as needed, whether by the National\nEconomic and Development Authority (NEDA<\/a>)\nor as implied in the president\u2019s reports to Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\nare the health interventions: personal protective equipment (PPE) and\nother logistical support for medical frontliners and responders; mass\ntesting and surveillance; isolation and quarantine facilities in\ncongested urban poor communities; and treatment facilities including\nmedical supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There\nare also the equally critical socioeconomic relief measures:\nemergency relief packages, cash transfers and other financial\nassistance, and business support for micro, small and medium\nenterprises (MSMEs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n And\nyet, so deep already into the crisis, the Duterte administration has\nfailed to present a clear response plan to the public. Instead, the\nnation is fed a daily stream of anecdotal reports about its\nfragmented efforts. Clearly, these efforts are far from enough. The\nlived experience of thousands of frontliners and millions of\nlocked-down households is stark neglect and unnecessary difficulties\nmounting by the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The\npresident\u2019s disorganized reports to Congress on March\n30<\/a> and\nApril\n6<\/a> are of\nlittle help and in many ways just add to the confusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Compiling\nthe various measures scattered in the reports shows the government\napparently having plans worth Php233.9 billion. This includes Php38.6\nbillion for hospitals and other health facilities, Php114 million for\nemergency relief packages, Php154.4 billion for cash transfers and\nother financial assistance, and Php40.8 billion for local government\nunits (LGUs). \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is getting close but still doesn\u2019t correspond to the headline Php275 billion figure. The president\u2019s reports to Congress seem to detail the Php200 billion emergency subsidies portion a little bit while leaving a gaping void in what the supposed Php75 billion for health care is about. In any case, something\u2019s wrong if the government\u2019s plan has to be built up in such a piecemeal manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Slow\nresponse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nneed for clarity about the response doesn\u2019t just come from being\nunnecessarily obsessive-compulsive about details. Clarity about the\nresponse is the starting point of marshalling public resources and\norganizing the machinery for the immediate and effective response\ndemanded by the crisis. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n The disarray goes far in explaining the sluggish response of the administration to date. IBON estimates that up to 18.9 million<\/a> workers in the formal and informal sector have been dislocated by the military lockdown; 14.5 million of these are in Luzon and the other 4.4 million in the rest of the country. \u2018Dislocated\u2019 is understood as work interruptions of some sort with varied risks of corresponding losses in wages, salaries and other income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The month-and-a-half lockdown-induced disruption in incomes and livelihoods has dire consequences for the poorest 16.1 million low-income families in the country. Their monthly incomes are at most around Php20,000 or so, according to IBON estimates using data from the latest 2018 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). These poorest three-fifths (64%) of families are also those who have little or no savings to speak of, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n The\ngovernment itself has acknowledged the vulnerable situation of the\noverwhelming majority of the population. The Bayanihan<\/em>\nto Heal as One Act (Republic\nAct 11469<\/a>)\nexplicitly said that 18 million low-income households \u2013\ncorresponding to around the poorest 75% of the population \u2013 will be\ngiven emergency subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Yet, weeks into the lockdown, the government response is still painfully slow and inadequate<\/a>. It seems to have waited until hunger and unrest became critical. This is exemplified by the frustration of the urban poor residents of Sitio San Roque, Quezon City in the heart of the capital who were violently dispersed and, bizarrely, 21 of whom were even detained and charged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\ntook three long weeks before emergency cash subsidies were released.\nAnd yet these have still so far only reached 3.7-4.9\nmillion<\/a>\npoor households \u2013 the government\u2019s report is confusing \u2013 or not\neven one third (20-27%) of the supposed target 18 million households\nunder RA 11469. Over two-thirds or as much as 11.5 million badly\naffected families are still waiting. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n Adding insult to injury, the government could have reached as much as 10-15 million households immediately<\/a> upon the lockdown three weeks ago. The president is also only able to report just a paltry 190,217<\/a> food packs distributed by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD). Underfunded local government units (LGUs), civil society groups, and concerned citizens have tried their best to fill this gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The\ngovernment\u2019s other emergency relief programs are doing even worse.\nThe Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) reports just 102,892<\/a>\nformal sector workers given Php5,000 in cash assistance under its\nCOVID-19\nAdjustment Measures Program (CAMP) \u2013 or barely 1% of 10.7 million\nworkers in formal establishments nationwide. Only 55,934<\/a>\ninformal workers have benefited from DOLE\u2019s Tulong\nPanghanapbuhay sa Ating<\/em>\nDisadvantaged\/Displaced Workers (TUPAD), receiving just an average of\nPhp3,121 each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Up\nto 357,614<\/a>\nfarmers and fisherfolk have supposedly been given zero interest loans\nunder the Department of Agriculture\u2019s (DA) Expanded Survival and\nRecovery Aid (SURE Aid) project, or granted loan payment moratoriums.\nThis is just 3.7% of farmers, farm workers and fisherfolk nationwide.\nThe president\u2019s report however could not say how much this support\nwas worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stingy\nresponse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nDuterte administration may be giving repeated anecdotal reports to\ngive the impression of sustained help. The response however is still\nclearly very slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At\nleast part of the reason is the government rationing the help and\nputting so many bureaucratic hurdles for poor families. However, the\nimportance of ensuring that all the neediest are covered far\noutweighs the redundance of some less needy being included. Choosing\nto err on the side of inclusion means dispensing with these hurdles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But\nthe response is also stingy in two respects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \nFirst, the amounts being given\nare very small. Beneficiaries will welcome any aid given to them but\nthe amounts fall far short of even the government\u2019s underestimated\nofficial poverty line of on average Php10,727 nationwide and\nPhp11,951 in the National Capital Region (NCR). \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\nis also probable that reported cash transfers for the poorest are\nbloated<\/a>\nbecause the amounts likely include prior entitlements before the\npandemic. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n Secondly, the Php275 billion response package is too small to provide critical subsistence support to all the millions of affected households during the lockdown and in the immediate period right after. It is also far below the order of magnitude needed to support the consumption-driven stimulus that the economy needs to moderate the economic collapse in 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n IBON\nis among many others that have pointed out that the relief measures\nhave to be much more ambitious. Our estimate is that Php297.1\nbillion<\/a>\nmonthly is more sufficient and should be given for up to 2-3 months\nat least. This does not yet even include perhaps Php300-400 billion\nin crucial support for critically\naffected businesses\nespecially the country\u2019s 998,000 or so micro,\nsmall and medium enterprises (MSMEs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n