Research group IBON said that Filipino families already squeezed by worsening joblessness and soaring prices will fall into greater crisis once Super El Niño hits in earnest. The group stressed that the Marcos Jr administration needs to take much more meaningful action immediately, while ensuring ample funding for measures in 2027 in the national budget being deliberated.
IBON said that the latest labor force figures show that Filipinos are entering the El Niño crisis with an already deteriorating jobs situation. Year-on-year August 2026 data show employment falling by 307,000 from 50.1 million to 49.8 million, while underemployment increased by 524,000 from 5.4 million to 5.9 million. Unemployment surged by 736,000 from 2 million to 2.8 million, making the unemployment rate rise sharply from 3.9% to 5.3 percent.
The group noted that unemployment would be even higher if official figures did not exclude millions of discouraged workers who stopped seeking employment due to poor job prospects.
Many of those officially classified as employed are, however, working fewer hours and likely earning less income. Part-time workers surged by 2.1 million from 14.9 million to 17 million, with mean hours worked falling from 41 hours to 39.2 hours. On the other hand, the number of full-time workers fell by a huge 2.9 million from the year before to 31.9 million. As it is, IBON estimates that three out of four (74%) Filipinos are informal workers stuck in insecure, poor-quality and low paying work.
Less work and less working hours mean lower incomes just when families need more money to cope with soaring prices. Inflation for the 30% poorest households has already reached 9%, its fastest pace in three years. Yet the average nominal wage nationwide is only Php518, far below the Php1,319 family living wage for a family of five, leaving a gap of Php801.
IBON said the jobs-and-inflation squeeze will worsen in the coming months as the continuing oil price shock is compounded by Super El Niño. Persistently elevated global and local oil prices will combine with the looming Super El Niño agricultural supply shock to drive food prices even higher.
Super El Niño will also lead to significant losses in jobs and livelihoods, particularly in agriculture. IBON noted that the previous El Niño episode from July 2023 to May 2024 affected 1.9 million families or 7.3 million Filipinos in 16 regions, including 333,195 farmers and fisherfolk. Amid the current Super El Niño, fisheries production is one of the first areas to be affected. August labor force figures show that jobs in fishing and aquaculture fell by 335,000 to 1.2 million.
The Marcos administration’s tepid response is compounding the hardship of struggling Filipino households. It has failed to directly intervene in oil price setting, set price controls on basic goods, and suspend fuel taxes, despite having the emergency power to do so. Despite PAG-ASA warnings of an impending Super El Niño as early as April 2026, government interventions are only now being prepared as damages mount.
IBON stressed that government cannot treat the oil shock, inflation, deteriorating employment and Super El Niño as separate problems. The group said that the Marcos administration must act immediately and impose price controls on oil and necessities, give substantial wage hikes, and expand subsidies and social assistance to vulnerable households. It must also give substantial production support to small businesses, farmers and other producers to prevent further job and livelihood losses.
The 2027 national budget must likewise provide ample funding for irrigation and water management, agricultural inputs and production support, crop and livelihood rehabilitation, social protection and other measures needed to withstand a prolonged Super El Niño.
