War broke out. Prices rapidly rose. Peace deals were floated. Yet even in the silence of gunshots, if any, poverty continues to indiscriminately swallow families whole.
Last March, the Marcos Jr government declared the Philippines to be in a state of a national energy emergency following the US war on Iran. One of the national government’s responses to this crisis is to expedite the disbursement of social welfare and protection programs, otherwise known as ayuda (Spanish for assistance). But ayuda isn’t a livelihood; it isn’t a guaranteed improvement for a sustainable quality of life.
What is guaranteed is that the country will continue to feel the oil price shock until February 2027, as estimated by the Asia Development Bank (ADB). In effect, the current 9.7% poverty incidence is forecast to increase by 1.19 percentage points, equating to an additional projected 1.3 million up to 3.7 million Filipinos pushed to poverty.
But evident in the recent budget deliberations is how the government’s response never changes. As always, “Let them eat pork barrel.”
Crisis In(ter)vention Units
The House Budget Amendments and Review Subcommittee (BARSc) convened last October 1, 2026 to push forward Php116.32 billion in proposed amendments for House Bill (HB) 10858, or the Fiscal Year (FY) 2027 General Appropriations Bill (GAB). The People’s Budget Coalition identifies Php67.54 billion or 58% of the amendments to be for patronage-prone ayuda programs.
On October 12, 2026, HB 10858 was approved on third and final reading in the House of Representatives (HOR), retaining most of the flagged amendments yet still not crucially addressing the national crisis.
The Department of Social Welfare and Development’s (DSWD) budget increased to Php262.8 billion in the 2027 GAB from a previous Php241.2 in the 2027 National Expenditure Program (NEP). Its second biggest program, the Assistance for Individuals in Crisis Situations (AICS), takes the lion’s share of amendments with an additional Php24.8 billion. It retained 96% of the BARSc’s proposal, boosting up the program’s budget to Php58.09 billion from a previous measly allocation of Php33.3 billion only.
The ayuda program to get the second largest amendment is the Department of Health’s (DOH) Medical Assistance to Indigent and Financially Incapacitated Patients (MAIFIP). The program’s budget doubled after receiving an additional Php23.97 billion – maintaining 96% of the BARSc’s amendments, as well – totaling its appropriations to Php48.2 billion in the 2027 GAB.
The Local Government Support Fund (LGSF), which may also fund local social protection programs, gained an additional Php4.09 billion, retaining 100% of the BARSc’s amendments. It now has a Php62.62 billion budget in the 2027 GAB—its highest allocation yet, just in time for the 2028 elections preparations.
The LSGF has had a record of local fixers in infrastructure budgets and a widespread misuse of funds where project implementation may only receive 8% of its allocated budget. Moreover, both AICS and MAIFIP’s new appropriations are still lower than the 2026 General Appropriations Act (GAA) by Php5.8 billion and Php3.44 billion, respectively.
AICS, in particular, is still Php18.2 billion short of the DSWD’s insistent request of a Php43 billion increase in preparation to financially assist the rapidly rising number of Filipinos suffering the national crisis.
This means that an estimate of nearly 800,000 former AICS beneficiaries will be turned away. This means that sick indigent families will continue to strip their dignity and democratic rights for guarantee letters. This means that the estimated additional near-4 million Filipinos below the poverty line remain invisible to our numb government.
Eye of the Crisis
One factor the invisibility of poverty may be attributed to is the targeting system used for identifying beneficiaries of ayuda. For instance, DSWD programs rely heavily on the Community-Based Monitoring System (CBMS) headed by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) in identifying its target beneficiaries.
However, the CBMS data used by the DSWD in its 2026 operations is two years behind and has an estimated 20% to near-40% inclusion/exclusion error. This means that 1 in every 5 beneficiaries is not truly qualified for ayuda yet may still receive financial assistance.
For example, DSWD served 4.26 million indigent senior citizens in 2026, but there remain nearly 550,000 more senior citizens who are unserved due to targeting issues with CBMS data. To meet this need, social workers must do manual on-the-ground validation before disbursement. The agency admits that social workers ask Local Government Units (LGUs) and community members to personally identify those who need financial assistance from the government.
This step is crucial. A subjective targeting system is only one of, if not arguably the biggest, gaps that breed patronage to sway and divide communities. While there are millions of Filipinos who continue to struggle with daily expenses and medical bills, cash handouts are easily given among those with a “referral” (kakilala).
The Crisis We Inherit
Ayuda and the budget appropriations for it are rarely made with the Filipinos in crisis in mind. MAIFIP is designed to sustain patronage systems through guarantee letters and has had records of billions in unutilized funds. The AICS, on the other hand, has become the government’s catch-all program yet remains incredibly tunnel visioned and unable to take into consideration an entire country flooded in crises and patronage.
When the price of living another day starts equating to sustaining local-level corruption and patronage systems, the Philippines turns out to be misdiagnosed all along. This was never just a crisis of oil and prices. It’s always been a crisis of elite politics.
Our current ayuda structure has proven that patronage stems from its skewed targeting systems. Politicians play a game of darts to blindly pick a small percentage of the 21 million poor and crisis-vulnerable Filipinos when in reality, the majority battles with soaring prices, increasing unemployment, and fewer jobs with little to no other state support.
Every Filipino has the right to universal dignified education, healthcare, housing, employment, and general assistance. This starts with realigning budget allocations away from hard pork barrel projects, non-urgent infrastructure, and debt servicing to assist more Filipinos in non-targeted and direct social welfare programs. In the long term, this requires a strengthening of the government’s revenue generation through higher corporate income taxes, and more importantly, progressive wealth and income taxes.
It’s easy to end a war. It’s easy to control prices. What is not easy is to have people’s rights and welfare at the heart of governance. Clearly, a responsibility that the Marcos Jr government is never interested in taking up – especially not with budget priorities where every billion in ayuda represents not a life saved, but another vote for 2028 secured.
