In a recent press briefing, President Marcos advised the public to buy pails to collect rainwater in anticipation of El Niño. Predictable yet still shocking, the president’s balde response to what could be the strongest El Niño in 150 years raises serious questions about the Marcos administration’s preparedness.
Is this all the public can expect from the Marcos government? The bili balde muna (BBM, as netizens have played on the president’s initials) response reveals a troubling disconnect between scientific knowledge and government action. The country has the scientific capacity to anticipate El Niño and its impacts, yet the presidency has offered little indication of how it is translating this knowledge into a comprehensive mitigation plan.
Early warnings unheeded
As early as April this year, meteorologists forecast a very strong El Niño that will intensify by the last quarter of 2026 and persist into early 2027. Yet months before its expected peak, Pacific Ocean temperatures have already surged to unprecedented levels, reaching 3.05°C above normal and surpassing the 3.02°C recorded in November 2015, the previous benchmark for one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
An El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures rise at least 0.5°C above normal. Once the anomaly breaches 2°C, it is classified as a “Very Strong El Niño.” The current event has blasted past that threshold, prompting meteorologists to call it a “Super El Niño.”
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issues an early alert when there is at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing, which the weather bureau certainly did in April. PAGASA’s early warning system effectively treats the two to three months before El Niño develops as a crucial window for early action and preparation.
But did the Marcos government use this window?
PhilRice’s climate-smart maps show that around 301,000 hectares (ha) of rice areas in Luzon are highly susceptible to drought, while another 280,000 ha are moderately vulnerable. About 150,000 ha in Mindanao are classified as highly susceptible, and more than 205,000 ha in the Visayas face similar risks. The Department of Agriculture (DA) forecasts national rice production losses of up to 700,000 metric tons (MT) or 3.5% of the annual target.
As of the end of September, the DA Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Operations Center reported that agricultural damage and losses have already reached Php6.87 billion, affecting 223,214 farmers and 249,028 ha of farmland. Bohol and Bicol are already logging heavy losses.
Past lessons unlearned
El Niño, the warming phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle, disrupts global weather every 2 to 7 years, often bringing droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones that devastate agricultural countries like the Philippines.
The country should therefore be long familiar with El Niño’s impacts. There have been unforgettable episodes, which the Marcos Jr government can learn from but does not.
Dubbed the “strongest El Niño of the 20th century”, the 1997-1998 episode caused extreme drought in 68% of the country, severely affecting rice and corn production, bringing it down by 43.6% and 26.6%, respectively.
The 2015-2016 episode affected 16 regions and left more than 400,000 households needing assistance to resume farming for the next cropping season. It lasted for 18 months and affected 85% of the country’s territory. In Kidapawan City, farmers whose crops had withered demanded food assistance from the National Food Authority (NFA) but were met with violence. This episode ended in the tragedy of the Kidapawan Massacre.
The 2023-2024 episode hit 37 provinces and affected 7 million Filipinos, with total losses reaching Php57.8 billion. The heat index in Northern Luzon reached 40°C, resulting in water shortages.
Despite these devastating lessons, and even though the last episode occurred under the Marcos administration, institutional preparedness remains weak. With drought already seeping in, the Marcos administration is still thinking in buckets.
Government’s inertia
In his last State of the Nation Address (SONA), the president touted a “proactive and predictive approach”, citing Republic Act (RA) 12287 or the Declaration of State of Imminent Disaster. The law aims to protect lives, property, and livelihoods by addressing vulnerabilities, enabling anticipatory action measures, and strengthening national and local government capacities for preparedness and recovery. PAGASA predicted a Super El Niño in April, but no “state of imminent disaster” has been declared to date.
The administration could have used agencies, especially those created to respond to weather-related disasters, such as the El Niño Task Force (ENTF) under the DA. The DA reconvened the ENTF in May 2026, but without a presidential executive order, the agency cannot exercise its official functions or issue binding directives to other agencies.
Six months since PAGASA’s advisory, no substantial preparation has been undertaken. The Marcos government is overflowing with rhetoric, but its preparedness has run dry.
Drought in the budget
The 2027 General Appropriations Bill (GAB), House Bill 10858, approved on third and final reading, reflects the government’s priorities, and dealing with the drought is not one of them.
The 2027 GAB shows a decline in the government’s allocation for restoring and repairing irrigation services, even though irrigation covers only 70% of irrigable lands. The 2026 budget targets 6,319 ha, but 2027 slashes this to 3,890 ha. The budget for canal repairs is also compromised—from 534 kilometers in 2026 to just 213 kilometers in 2027. The rehabilitation budget has plummeted from Php22 billion in 2026 to Php9.2 billion in 2027. The overall irrigation budget fell from Php50.1 billion in 2026 to Php29.3 billion in 2027.
While the president focuses on bucket solutions, the government’s prioritization of Small-Scale Irrigation Projects (SSIP), whether for collecting rainwater or impounding surface freshwater resources, is also wanting. SSIP includes small water impounding projects, small farm reservoirs, cistern tanks, shallow tube wells, pumps, spring development, and so on. The DA’s SSIP budget for 2026 is Php740 million, down to Php223 million in 2027.
The National Irrigation Administration (NIA) has its own allocation of Php3.8 billion for the Small Reservoir Irrigation Sub-Program for 2026. In short, budget for rainwater collection and freshwater impounding increased by only Php242.7 million for 2027.
Granted, the 2026 budget was prepared before PAGASA issued its El Niño forecast. But the 2027 GAB, as prepared by the House of Representatives, still shows how the government has practically deprioritized its response, even as El Niño is projected to persist through the first half of 2027.
The question now is whether the government is prepared to provide farmers with emergency assistance. The budget for crop insurance dropped from Php6.5 billion in 2026 to Php4.5 billion in 2027. Likewise, the calamity fund decreased from Php3.6 billion in 2026 to Php3 billion in 2027. The Quick Response Fund (QRF) under the DA has stayed at Php1 billion since 2022.
The Disaster Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Assistance Program for local government units (LGUs) also fell from Php15.3 billion to a staggering Php6.9 billion.
The Php10-billion Presidential Assistance for Farmers and Fisherfolk (PAFF), meanwhile, benefits only 27% of 7.41 million agricultural workers, each receiving just Php2,325. The Marcos government is apparently not even ready to assist, unless of course, assistance is within its patronage spending.
Misdirecting water resources
The DA’s recently rolled out measures–cloud seeding, rainwater catchment system, and utilization of solar-powered irrigation systems–are dismally insufficient. Cloud seeding over Angat Dam, for instance, did not raise the dam’s current water level of 155 meters to its normal 210 meters.
How ironic that the Marcos administration is even pushing for New Clark City in Central Luzon to be the center of the Economic Security Zone of the US-led Pax Silica initiative. Pax Silica is projected to consume 65 to 90 million gallons of water daily—a volume that could otherwise irrigate farms in the country’s rice granary.
The Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) is exploring saltwater desalination as an alternative water source for Pax Silica. Desalination is costly–typically ranging from US$0.40 to US$2.00 per cubic meter, or about US$500 to US$2,500 per acre-foot, depending on factors like energy prices and plant size. If the Marcos government is willing to spend that much to supply water for Pax Silica, it is brazenly prioritizing the US defense industrial base over the country’s agricultural production and food security.
Farmers’ groups have decried this misplaced priority. Millions of the country’s direct food producers still lack reliable access to water and irrigation, even if the country is abundant with freshwater resources. Yet, the Marcos government is choosing to direct water resources toward artificial intelligence (AI) manufacturing hubs while neglecting the rehabilitation and expansion of irrigation systems essential for local food production. With the Marcos government’s unrelenting US subservience, every El Niño will surely turn into a predictable disaster.
Drought and disregard
Global scientists are estimating that the current El Niño is likely to be the largest in at least 1,000 years. It will pile extra heat into an atmosphere that is already heating rapidly due to capitalism-induced global warming. The Philippines has negligible contribution to global warming, but the country is suffering the brunt of climate-related disasters. The 2026 World Risk Report ranks the country the riskiest in the world for natural disasters.
The Marcos government’s appalling response to El Niño exposes the hypocrisy of its climate rhetoric and paradox of governance. It speaks of climate resilience but fails to invest in the preparedness needed to protect farmers, rural communities, and the public from worsening climate risks. It throws the country open to foreign investments that plunder the environment while starving climate adaptation and mitigation of much-needed funds.
Nowhere is this neglect more glaring than in agriculture. The Marcos government has deepened the vulnerabilities of the sector, throwing it in a downward spiral of crop failures, lost livelihoods, and bankruptcies. Yet, its knee-jerk solution has always been to prepare its increasing importation targets. The Marcos government is slow in strengthening irrigation systems and providing direct assistance to farmers but quick to decide to just import food, further undermining agriculture and national food security.
The drought may be a natural phenomenon, but the disaster it threatens to unleash is a consequence of political choices. And under the Marcos government, those choices have consistently favored profits over people, imports over local production, and political gimmicks over readiness. El Niño is exposing not just the government’s failure to prepare for a climate crisis, but its failure to govern in the people’s interests.
