Research group IBON said that the latest February labor force data confirms that millions of Filipino families are highly vulnerable to rising fuel costs and higher inflation, and will be pushed into even deeper poverty because of the oil price shock. The long-standing jobs crisis has been largely ignored and worsened even before oil prices began surging in March. The group said that this fragile employment situation for so many underlines the importance of a government response appropriate to the magnitude of the problem at hand.
Looking at month-on-month changes to better reflect immediate changes in the labor market and trends in the current situation of Filipinos, IBON said that the huge 1.1 million fewer wage workers in private establishments astride a 306,000 drop in public-sector work is an alarming indication of volatility, especially coming from supposedly stable sources of employment. These combined with the 994,000-increase in the labor force to drive the 1.7 million surge in self-employment as Filipinos sought to earn a living in however way they can. Jobs remained insufficient though, resulting in the huge 1.4 million increase in those not in the labor force.
While headline figures show a 1.5 million increase in employment to 49.4 million and a 294,000-drop in unemployment to 2.7 million, IBON stressed that these numbers are misleading. Much of the reported “job growth” comes from a staggering 1.4 million rise in unpaid family work to 3.4 million—hardly a sign of improving livelihoods. Moreover, being counted as “employed” says little about whether incomes are enough for a decent living.
The group also cautioned that official unemployment figures fail to reflect the true extent of joblessness. Millions of discouraged workers, or those who have stopped looking for jobs due to bleak prospects, remain invisible in official data.
Altogether, IBON said the latest figures confirm a troubling reality: even before oil price shocks, the majority of Filipino families were already stuck in precarious and uncertain work. The group said that the impact of rising fuel costs will ripple far beyond transport workers, hitting tens of millions of poor, low-income, and lower middle-class Filipinos.
IBON estimates that 14.4 million poor and low-income families, covering 61% of the population, survive on Php22,000 or less per month. Another 7 million lower middle-class families, or 23% of the population, earn between Php22,000 and Php36,000. In total, 21.4 million families, or 84% of Filipinos, are highly vulnerable to unstable jobs and the inflationary shock triggered by rising oil prices.
The group stressed that token responses will not be enough. The Marcos Jr administration must act decisively to cushion already vulnerable Filipinos in precarious work from the worsening impact of the oil crisis and rising prices. Immediate steps should include removing VAT and excise taxes on fuel as rapid relief, alongside significantly expanding emergency cash transfers for distressed transport workers, fisherfolk and farmers. Small businesses should also be given further relief from taxes and charges, wage subsidies to help them support their workers, and liquidity support to help them keep operational. Beyond short-term relief, the government must pursue long-term solutions that create stable and decent jobs—starting with strengthening local agriculture and building Filipino industries.
