Slowest inflation, but prices higher than during peak inflation under Marcos

August 19, 2025

by IBON Foundation

Despite government hype over the lowest inflation since 2019, the price of food, utilities, and other essentials are still higher than in January 2023, when inflation was highest under the Marcos Jr administration. Ordinary Filipinos still struggle to afford basic goods as their budgets are strained by persistently high prices. The low inflation rate is barely felt by the majority because of chronic joblessness, low incomes, and poverty from weak agriculture and domestic industry.

The Philippine Statistics Authority recently reported that inflation fell to 0.9% in July 2025 from 4.4% in July last year and 1.4% the previous month. The components of this decline are slower price increases in: utilities (housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels); food and non-alcoholic beverages; transportation; education services; and personal care and miscellaneous goods and services. Lower prices for rice and vegetables were particularly highlighted.

The less-than-1% inflation indicates slower price hikes but does not mean that prices in general went down. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2025 is still 5.2% higher than in January 2023, when inflation hit an unprecedented 8.7% under the Marcos administration. Put another way, prices today still include the impact of record inflation in 2023 aside from additional increases due to inflation since then until the recent 0.9% inflation.

The CPI measures the average change in prices that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, including basic food, clothing, housing, transportation and healthcare.

Comparing prices from January 2023 to July 2025, living costs have either increased or remained nearly the same despite recent slow inflation. For example, the price per kilo of well-milled rice rose from Php43 to Php48; regular milled rice from Php39 to Php40; imported garlic from Php110 to Php156; baguio beans from Php120 to Php131; kangkong from Php74 to Php85; pechay from Php81 to Php109; galunggong from Php259 to Php267; and chicken from Php200 to Php223.

Higher generation charges pushed Meralco rates up by Php0.49 per kilowatt-hour (/kwh) in July 2025, raising the overall rate for a household to Php12.6435/kwh, or some Php2,500 per month for a typical consumption of 200 kilowatt hours. This is higher than the Php10.90/kwh or some Php2,180 per month in January 2023. Water rates in Metro Manila are also higher. The average all-in tariff of Php53 per cubic meter (/cu.m.) in January 2023 rose to Php69/cu.m. in the second quarter of 2025 for Manila Water and from Php52/cu.m. to Php66/cu.m. for Maynilad.

The lack of decent employment, low wages, and persistent poverty make perennially rising prices a permanent burden on millions of Filipinos. Despite higher employment reported in the latest Labor Force Survey, IBON estimates that 7 out of 10 employed Filipinos are informal workers with poor-quality, irregular and low-paying jobs.

Formal wage earners are not much better off. Minimum wage hikes under the Marcos Jr administration have still not been enough to even just restore the real value of 16 regional minimum wages to their levels in 1989, with the exception of the National Capital Region (NCR). The average nominal minimum wage across the country’s 17 regions is Php481 as of July 2025, which is Php737 short of the estimated Php1,218 average family living wage. Meanwhile, according to the Social Weather Station’s most recent survey, around 16.5 million or 59% of Filipino families consider themselves poor or borderline.

These problems arise from the country’s chronically weak economic foundations due to government neglect, which has left the agriculture and manufacturing sectors at their lowest shares of the economy in over seven decades. Strengthening domestic agriculture and Filipino industries is crucial for generating sustainable, decent-paying jobs and providing the basic and development needs of Filipinos and the nation. The effects of inflation would also be moderated if the government provided more affordable, or even free, essential public education and health services as basic rights that every Filipino is entitled to.

Instead, successive administrations have fixated on attracting foreign investments or maximizing profits for local and foreign big business instead of developing domestic agriculture and Filipino industry. This narrow-minded economic approach has left prices vulnerable to profit-seeking market forces, entrenching unchecked and recurring price hikes.

The interventions touted by the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) to temper inflation — such as distributing agricultural inputs, quick response loans, and short-term welfare programs — are tokenistic and unsustainable. Without genuinely strengthening domestic agriculture, manufacturing, and social protection, Filipinos will remain vulnerable and trapped in a cycle of economic insecurity. Piecemeal measures cannot substitute for comprehensive solutions that address the root causes of joblessness, weak production and persistent inflation.