Research group IBON said that the all-time low peso and surging global oil prices are a double whammy that will double inflation in the coming months, hitting millions of poor Filipino families the hardest. The group stressed that claims that a weaker peso boosts exports and the peso value of remittances ignore the broader economic context and its real impact on households.
The peso has recently breached Php60 to the US dollar, while global oil prices have climbed to around US$100-110 per barrel amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A weaker peso already makes expensive oil imports—which the Philippines is highly dependent on—even costlier, compounding price pressures and accelerating inflation. This combination of high import costs and rising fuel prices is expected to push up the cost of basic goods and services.
Price pressures are already evident. From December 2025 to 11 March 2026, rice prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) rose steeply: regular rice increased from Php38.94 per kilo to as high as Php47, and well-milled rice from Php43.90 to Php55 per kilo.
IBON said this double burden is worsening conditions for millions of households and intensifying daily economic strain. Around 14.3 million poor families are already highly vulnerable to price increases, while an estimated 3.4 million borderline poor households risk being pushed into poverty. This includes lower-middle-income families whose real incomes are steadily eroding.
The group added that claims of export gains from peso depreciation are overstated. Around 65–70% of the country’s commodity exports are manufactured goods produced by foreign firms operating in the Philippines, with limited domestic value-added and weak linkages to the local economy. Any benefits from a weaker peso are therefore narrowly captured and do not translate into broad-based development.
Similarly, the supposed gains to overseas Filipino worker (OFW) households are limited. While remittances may rise in peso terms, these will be offset by higher domestic prices. A weaker peso also implies cheaper labor in dollar terms, underscoring the country’s continued dependence on labor export rather than addressing structural employment weaknesses.
IBON warned against treating exchange rate movements as purely “market-determined” and therefore inherently acceptable. Price movements in foreign exchange, fuel, or basic goods may be market-driven, but when they result in widespread economic distress, they have clear social costs.
The group said that economic outcomes are shaped by policy choices. The government has the capacity to intervene to protect purchasing power, support livelihoods, and mitigate inflationary pressures. Downplaying the situation as “normal” or suggesting that adjustment is sufficient risks delaying urgent action and deepening the economic impact on Filipino households.
